Wed, Oct 29 2025 • 23:30 • Estadio Centenario
Not Started
Expected Goals
3.90 (league 0.67) 3.88 (league 0.59)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.7% 13.2% 25.4%
best score tips
3 - 3
4.0%
4 - 3
3.9%
3 - 4
3.9%
Score & goals probability table
Plaza Colonia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penarol 0 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
1 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.2%
2 0.3% 1.2% 2.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.3%
3 0.4% 1.6% 3.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.0%
4 0.4% 1.6% 3.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.0%
5 0.3% 1.2% 2.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPenarolPlaza Colonia
Played44
Form100%100%
Attack69%62%
Defense85%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 2.38 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.54 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

85%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Penarol Plaza Colonia
HATHAT
Played134134
Wins100%100%100%100%100%100%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses0%0%0%0%0%0%

Form: Penarol: WWWW • Plaza Colonia: WWWW

League goals

Metric Penarol Plaza Colonia
HATHAT
GF total279178
GF avg2.02.32.31.02.32.0
GA total112044
GA avg1.00.30.50.01.31.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePenarolPlaza Colonia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%50%100%75%
1.5100%0%75%25%
2.525%0%25%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPenarolPlaza Colonia
HATHAT
Clean sheets022101
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricPenarolPlaza Colonia
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%4 | 66.67%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 33.33%
Total06

Streaks

MetricPenarolPlaza Colonia
Wins44
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-31-02-3
Biggest losses————
Goals For2313
Goals Against1102

Model comparison

MetricPenarolPlaza Colonia
Form50%50%
Att53%47%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h71%29%
Goals71%29%
Total61.3%38.7%

Advice: Double chance : Penarol or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.39 @ 1xBet
Draw4.50 @ Bet365
Away9.00 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.62 @ Bet365
No1.53 @ Betano
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Penarol = 3.90 (league 0.67), Plaza Colonia = 3.88 (league 0.59)

Plaza Colonia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penarol 0 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
1 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.2%
2 0.3% 1.2% 2.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.3%
3 0.4% 1.6% 3.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.0%
4 0.4% 1.6% 3.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.0%
5 0.3% 1.2% 2.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.7% · Draw 13.2% · Away win 25.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1