Sat, Nov 1 2025 • 22:00 • Estadio Centenario
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.10) 0.55 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.9% 39.4% 23.7%
best score tips
0 - 0
26.8%
1 - 0
20.5%
0 - 1
14.8%
Score & goals probability table
Club Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cerro 0 26.8% 14.8% 4.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.5% 11.3% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 7.9% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCerroClub Nacional
Played55
Form80%60%
Attack46%38%
Defense77%85%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.62 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

57%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

52%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Cerro Club Nacional
HATHAT
Played67137613
Wins67%43%54%86%33%62%
Draws0%14%8%14%50%31%
Loses33%43%38%0%17%8%

Form: Cerro: DLWWLLLWWLWWW • Club Nacional: WLWDWWWWDWDWD

League goals

Metric Cerro Club Nacional
HATHAT
GF total761319524
GF avg1.20.91.02.70.81.8
GA total49136410
GA avg0.71.31.00.90.70.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCerroClub Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%54%62%54%
1.531%23%62%15%
2.50%8%46%8%
3.50%8%8%0%
4.50%8%8%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCerroClub Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets336246
Failed to score134145

Penalties

MetricCerroClub Nacional
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricCerroClub Nacional
Wins24
Draws11
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-25-20-3
Biggest losses1-25-1—3-0
Goals For2253
Goals Against2523

Model comparison

MetricCerroClub Nacional
Form57%43%
Att55%45%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h20%80%
Goals33%67%
Total42.7%57.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Club Nacional and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home7.62 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.10 @ 188Bet
Away1.54 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.39 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.78 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.63 @ Betfair
No1.60 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Cerro = 0.77 (league 1.10), Club Nacional = 0.55 (league 1.02)

Club Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cerro 0 26.8% 14.8% 4.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.5% 11.3% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 7.9% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.9% · Draw 39.4% · Away win 23.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1