Sun, Nov 2 2025 • 22:00 • Estadio Campeón del Siglo
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.54 (league 1.10) 0.06 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
86.4% 8.6% 0.5%
best score tips
2 - 0
24.0%
3 - 0
20.3%
1 - 0
18.9%
Score & goals probability table
Defensor Sporting
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penarol 0 7.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 18.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 24.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 20.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 12.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 6.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPenarolDefensor Sporting
Played55
Form67%47%
Attack71%36%
Defense64%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

62%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

56%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Penarol Defensor Sporting
HATHAT
Played76136713
Wins100%33%69%83%29%54%
Draws0%33%15%0%14%8%
Loses0%33%15%17%57%38%

Form: Penarol: WWLWWWDWWWDWL • Defensor Sporting: LWWWLWLWDWLWL

League goals

Metric Penarol Defensor Sporting
HATHAT
GF total1412267411
GF avg2.02.02.01.20.60.8
GA total1101131013
GA avg0.11.70.80.51.41.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePenarolDefensor Sporting
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.592%54%54%62%
1.569%31%23%23%
2.531%0%8%8%
3.58%0%0%8%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPenarolDefensor Sporting
HATHAT
Clean sheets606325
Failed to score011156

Penalties

MetricPenarolDefensor Sporting
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricPenarolDefensor Sporting
Wins33
Draws11
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-42-12-3
Biggest losses—2-00-14-0
Goals For3423
Goals Against1214

Model comparison

MetricPenarolDefensor Sporting
Form59%41%
Att67%33%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution96%4%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total68.0%32.0%

Advice: Winner : Penarol

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.48 @ Bet365
Draw4.41 @ Pinnacle
Away7.59 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.23 @ Pinnacle
No1.68 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.04 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.84 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Penarol = 2.54 (league 1.10), Defensor Sporting = 0.06 (league 1.00)

Defensor Sporting
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penarol 0 7.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 18.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 24.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 20.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 12.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 6.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 86.4% · Draw 8.6% · Away win 0.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1