Tue, Nov 11 2025 • 00:30 • Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.94 (league 1.38) 1.94 (league 0.87)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
17.7% 21.6% 59.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
10.8%
0 - 2
10.5%
1 - 1
10.2%
Score & goals probability table
Envigado
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 5.6% 10.8% 10.5% 6.8% 3.3% 1.3%
1 5.3% 10.2% 9.9% 6.4% 3.1% 1.2%
2 2.5% 4.8% 4.7% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6%
3 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricIndependiente MedellinEnvigado
Played55
Form67%53%
Attack58%33%
Defense75%75%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Independiente Medellin Envigado
HATHAT
Played347549
Wins33%75%57%80%25%56%
Draws33%25%29%0%75%33%
Loses33%0%14%20%0%11%

Form: Independiente Medellin: DWDWLWW • Envigado: WWDWWDWDL

League goals

Metric Independiente Medellin Envigado
HATHAT
GF total4597512
GF avg1.31.31.31.41.31.3
GA total404347
GA avg1.30.00.60.61.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineIndependiente MedellinEnvigado
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%43%78%56%
1.529%14%44%11%
2.514%0%11%11%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricIndependiente MedellinEnvigado
HATHAT
Clean sheets044224
Failed to score011112

Penalties

MetricIndependiente MedellinEnvigado
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricIndependiente MedellinEnvigado
Wins12
Draws11
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-32-00-1
Biggest losses1-2—0-1—
Goals For2323
Goals Against2013

Model comparison

MetricIndependiente MedellinEnvigado
Form56%44%
Att64%36%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution34%66%
H2h80%20%
Goals64%36%
Total58.0%42.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Independiente Medellin or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.54 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.65 @ 10Bet
Away8.00 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.96 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.02 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.37 @ 188Bet
No1.85 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Independiente Medellin = 0.94 (league 1.38), Envigado = 1.94 (league 0.87)

Envigado
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 5.6% 10.8% 10.5% 6.8% 3.3% 1.3%
1 5.3% 10.2% 9.9% 6.4% 3.1% 1.2%
2 2.5% 4.8% 4.7% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6%
3 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 17.7% · Draw 21.6% · Away win 59.2%

Vtot 6 , Vtod1