Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 19:30 •
Estadio Luis Franzini
Expected Goals
0.66 (league 1.10)
0.34 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.6% | 45.6% | 16.8% |
best score tips
0 - 0
36.8%
1 - 0
24.1%
0 - 1
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Club Nacional | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Defensor Sporting | 0 | 36.8% | 12.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Attack | 60% | 50% |
| Defense | 30% | 80% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
53%
FT probability
2.5+
37%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
49%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| Wins | 83% | 25% | 50% | 86% | 29% | 57% |
| Draws | 0% | 13% | 7% | 14% | 57% | 36% |
| Loses | 17% | 63% | 43% | 0% | 14% | 7% |
Form: Defensor Sporting: LWWWLWLWDWLWLL • Club Nacional: WLWDWWWWDWDWDD
League goals
| Metric | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 5 | 24 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 3 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 57% | 64% | 57% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 21% | 29% | 57% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 7% | 43% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 7% | 7% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 2-3 | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 4-0 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 22% | 78% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 41.0% | 59.0% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Club Nacional and -3.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Defensor Sporting = 0.66 (league 1.10), Club Nacional = 0.34 (league 1.02)
| Club Nacional | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Defensor Sporting | 0 | 36.8% | 12.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.6% · Draw 45.6% · Away win 16.8%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1