Sun, Nov 16 2025 • 21:00 •
Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi
Expected Goals
1.74 (league 1.45)
1.23 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 48.3% | 23.6% | 27.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 1
9.5%
1 - 0
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Deportivo Garcilaso | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FBC Melgar | 0 | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Attack | 55% | 36% |
| Defense | 64% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 18 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
| Wins | 59% | 22% | 40% | 44% | 35% | 40% |
| Draws | 18% | 61% | 40% | 22% | 35% | 29% |
| Loses | 24% | 17% | 20% | 33% | 29% | 31% |
Form: FBC Melgar: WWWWWWLLDDWDDWDLDDWLDDLWDLDWDWDWLWD • Deportivo Garcilaso: DWWWDWWLWLLLLWLWDLWDWDDWDWDDLLWLLWD
League goals
| Metric | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 21 | 52 | 26 | 22 | 48 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 15 | 22 | 37 | 17 | 23 | 40 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 77% | 69% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 23% | 43% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 3% | 17% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-1 | 2-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-1 | 2-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 53% | 47% |
| Total | 55.2% | 44.8% |
Advice: Double chance : FBC Melgar or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): FBC Melgar = 1.74 (league 1.45), Deportivo Garcilaso = 1.23 (league 0.95)
| Deportivo Garcilaso | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FBC Melgar | 0 | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.3% · Draw 23.6% · Away win 27.0%
Vtot 3 , Vtod1