Primera A — Colombia
Sun, Nov 23 2025 • 22:45 • Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Second Half
Expected Goals
1.84 (league 1.11) 1.41 (league 0.79)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
46.6% 22.6% 29.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.0%
2 - 1
9.2%
1 - 0
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 3.8% 5.4% 3.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
1 7.1% 10.0% 7.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 9.2% 6.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.0% 5.7% 4.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
4 1.9% 2.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Played55
Form60%80%
Attack100%100%
Defense0%17%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.412 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Independiente Medellin Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
Played242549232346
Wins50%48%49%70%30%50%
Draws38%24%31%17%43%30%
Loses13%28%20%13%26%20%

Form: Independiente Medellin: DWWDWWWDDDDLWWDDLLWLDWWWWDDLDLLWWWWWWDDWLWWDLWWWL • Atletico Nacional: WWWDLWWDWDLWDWLWDWLLDDLWLWWWLDDWDDWDWWDWDWWWLW

League goals

Metric Independiente Medellin Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
GF total413475483381
GF avg1.71.41.52.11.41.8
GA total202646202747
GA avg0.81.00.90.91.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%61%83%65%
1.543%20%52%28%
2.527%6%26%9%
3.54%4%11%0%
4.52%2%4%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets1181910616
Failed to score3811268

Penalties

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Scored (total | %)9 | 100.00%14 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total914

Streaks

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Wins63
Draws42
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-54-01-5
Biggest losses3-45-22-32-0
Goals For3555
Goals Against4533

Model comparison

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Form43%57%
Att50%50%
Def42%58%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h50%50%
Goals44%56%
Total47.3%52.7%

Advice: No predictions available

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.42 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.60 @ Bet365
Away3.33 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.97 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.87 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.82 @ 188Bet
No2.25 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Independiente Medellin = 1.84 (league 1.11), Atletico Nacional = 1.41 (league 0.79)

Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 3.8% 5.4% 3.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
1 7.1% 10.0% 7.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 9.2% 6.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.0% 5.7% 4.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
4 1.9% 2.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.6% · Draw 22.6% · Away win 29.3%

Vtot 3 , Vtod1