Sun, Nov 30 2025 • 19:30 • Gran Parque Central
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.44 (league 1.10) 1.77 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
56.1% 14.0% 15.6%
best score tips
3 - 1
6.6%
3 - 2
5.8%
2 - 1
5.7%
Score & goals probability table
Penarol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Club Nacional 0 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
1 1.9% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3%
2 3.2% 5.7% 5.1% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5%
3 3.7% 6.6% 5.8% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5%
4 3.2% 5.6% 5.0% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5%
5 2.2% 3.9% 3.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricClub NacionalPenarol
Played55
Form47%67%
Attack46%62%
Defense69%54%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Club Nacional Penarol
HATHAT
Played7101710818
Wins86%20%47%90%50%72%
Draws14%60%41%10%25%17%
Loses0%20%12%0%25%11%

Form: Club Nacional: LWLWDWWWWDWDWDDDD • Penarol: WWWLWWWDWWWDWLWWWD

League goals

Metric Club Nacional Penarol
HATHAT
GF total19827191635
GF avg2.70.81.61.92.01.9
GA total681441115
GA avg0.90.80.80.41.40.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineClub NacionalPenarol
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.559%59%94%56%
1.553%18%72%28%
2.535%6%22%0%
3.56%0%6%0%
4.56%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricClub NacionalPenarol
HATHAT
Clean sheets257718
Failed to score167011

Penalties

MetricClub NacionalPenarol
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricClub NacionalPenarol
Wins43
Draws11
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-20-33-01-4
Biggest losses—3-0—2-0
Goals For5334
Goals Against2322

Model comparison

MetricClub NacionalPenarol
Form41%59%
Att43%57%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution65%35%
H2h15%85%
Goals27%73%
Total41.8%58.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Penarol

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.40 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.10 @ Bet365
Away3.62 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.20 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.71 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.85 @ Betfair
No2.06 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (Ī»): Club Nacional = 3.44 (league 1.10), Penarol = 1.77 (league 1.02)

Penarol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Club Nacional 0 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
1 1.9% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3%
2 3.2% 5.7% 5.1% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5%
3 3.7% 6.6% 5.8% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5%
4 3.2% 5.6% 5.0% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5%
5 2.2% 3.9% 3.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 56.1% Ā· Draw 14.0% Ā· Away win 15.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1