Sun, Nov 23 2025 • 19:30 • Estadio Campeón del Siglo
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.21 (league 1.10) 0.14 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
65.2% 30.4% 4.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
31.4%
0 - 0
25.9%
2 - 0
19.0%
Score & goals probability table
Club Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penarol 0 25.9% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 31.4% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 19.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPenarolClub Nacional
Played55
Form80%47%
Attack100%44%
Defense56%78%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.84 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.82 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

55%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Penarol Club Nacional
HATHAT
Played98177916
Wins100%50%76%86%22%50%
Draws0%25%12%14%56%38%
Loses0%25%12%0%22%13%

Form: Penarol: WWWLWWWDWWWDWLWWW • Club Nacional: LWLWDWWWWDWDWDDD

League goals

Metric Penarol Club Nacional
HATHAT
GF total17163319625
GF avg1.92.01.92.70.71.6
GA total211136612
GA avg0.21.40.80.90.70.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePenarolClub Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.594%53%56%56%
1.571%24%50%13%
2.524%0%38%6%
3.56%0%6%0%
4.50%0%6%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPenarolClub Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets718257
Failed to score011167

Penalties

MetricPenarolClub Nacional
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricPenarolClub Nacional
Wins34
Draws11
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-45-20-3
Biggest losses—2-0—3-0
Goals For3453
Goals Against1223

Model comparison

MetricPenarolClub Nacional
Form63%37%
Att69%31%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution88%12%
H2h71%29%
Goals70%30%
Total65.7%34.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Penarol or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.32 @ Unibet
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away3.84 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.63 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.17 @ Pinnacle
No1.76 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Penarol = 1.21 (league 1.10), Club Nacional = 0.14 (league 1.02)

Club Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penarol 0 25.9% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 31.4% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 19.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 65.2% · Draw 30.4% · Away win 4.2%

Vtot 6 , Vtod1