Primera A — Colombia
Thu, Dec 4 2025 • 23:30 • Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Not Started
Expected Goals
1.99 (league 1.11) 1.47 (league 0.79)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.1% 21.7% 28.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.2%
2 - 1
9.1%
1 - 2
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
Independiente Medellin
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Nacional 0 3.1% 4.6% 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
1 6.2% 9.2% 6.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
2 6.2% 9.1% 6.7% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
3 4.1% 6.1% 4.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2%
4 2.0% 3.0% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
Played55
Form33%33%
Attack36%45%
Defense55%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atletico Nacional Independiente Medellin
HATHAT
Played242549262652
Wins67%28%47%46%46%46%
Draws21%44%33%42%23%33%
Loses13%28%20%12%31%21%

Form: Atletico Nacional: WWWDLWWDWDLWDWLWDWLLDDLWLWWWLDDWDDWDWWDWDWWWLWDDL • Independiente Medellin: DWWDWWWDDDDLWWDDLLWLDWWWWDDLDLLWWWWWWDDWLWWDLWWWLDLD

League goals

Metric Atletico Nacional Independiente Medellin
HATHAT
GF total493483423577
GF avg2.01.41.71.61.31.5
GA total212950212849
GA avg0.91.21.00.81.10.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.582%65%77%62%
1.549%29%40%21%
2.524%8%25%6%
3.510%0%4%4%
4.54%0%2%2%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
HATHAT
Clean sheets1071712820
Failed to score2794812

Penalties

MetricAtletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
Scored (total | %)14 | 100.00%9 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total149

Streaks

MetricAtletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
Wins36
Draws24
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-01-53-01-5
Biggest losses2-32-03-45-2
Goals For5535
Goals Against3345

Model comparison

MetricAtletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
Form50%50%
Att44%56%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h64%36%
Goals59%41%
Total53.0%47.0%

Advice: Double chance : Atletico Nacional or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.93 @ Betano
Draw3.52 @ Marathonbet
Away4.10 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.87 @ Betfair
No1.99 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Atletico Nacional = 1.99 (league 1.11), Independiente Medellin = 1.47 (league 0.79)

Independiente Medellin
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Nacional 0 3.1% 4.6% 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
1 6.2% 9.2% 6.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
2 6.2% 9.1% 6.7% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
3 4.1% 6.1% 4.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2%
4 2.0% 3.0% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.1% · Draw 21.7% · Away win 28.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1