Thu, Mar 26 2026 • 19:45 • New Balance Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.52 (league 1.89) 0.91 (league 1.42)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
67.9% 16.2% 11.5%
best score tips
2 - 0
10.2%
2 - 1
9.4%
3 - 0
8.6%
Score & goals probability table
Northern Ireland
0 1 2 3 4 5
Italy 0 3.2% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 8.1% 7.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 10.2% 9.4% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 8.6% 7.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
4 5.4% 4.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricItalyNorthern Ireland
Played55
Form80%40%
Attack42%12%
Defense73%85%
Goals For (tot | avg)14 | 2.84 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

94%
FT probability

2.5+

66%
FT probability

3.5+

47%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Italy Northern Ireland
HATHAT
Played448336
Wins75%75%75%67%33%50%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses25%25%25%33%67%50%

Form: Italy: LWWWWWWL • Northern Ireland: WLWLLW

League goals

Metric Italy Northern Ireland
HATHAT
GF total111021347
GF avg2.82.52.61.01.31.2
GA total4812156
GA avg1.02.01.50.31.71.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineItalyNorthern Ireland
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%50%67%67%
1.575%38%33%17%
2.550%38%17%17%
3.525%25%0%0%
4.525%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricItalyNorthern Ireland
HATHAT
Clean sheets314202
Failed to score011112

Penalties

MetricItalyNorthern Ireland
Scored (total | %)1 | 50.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)1 | 50.00%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricItalyNorthern Ireland
Wins61
Draws00
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-01-32-01-3
Biggest losses1-43-00-13-1
Goals For5523
Goals Against4413

Model comparison

MetricItalyNorthern Ireland
Form67%33%
Att78%22%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h80%20%
Goals100%0%
Total66.6%33.4%

Advice: Winner : Italy

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.30 @ 888Sport
Draw6.10 @ Unibet
Away16.00 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.90 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.07 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.68 @ Pinnacle
No1.65 @ 888Sport
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Italy = 2.52 (league 1.89), Northern Ireland = 0.91 (league 1.42)

Northern Ireland
0 1 2 3 4 5
Italy 0 3.2% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 8.1% 7.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 10.2% 9.4% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 8.6% 7.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
4 5.4% 4.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 67.9% · Draw 16.2% · Away win 11.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1