FA Cup — Scotland
Sat, Jan 17 2026 • 15:00 • Ochilview Park
Not Started
Expected Goals
4.55 (league 1.76) 2.15 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
46.9% 10.2% 10.9%
best score tips
4 - 2
5.1%
4 - 1
4.7%
5 - 2
4.6%
Score & goals probability table
Morton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stenhousemuir 0 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%
2 1.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0.5%
3 1.9% 4.2% 4.5% 3.2% 1.7% 0.7%
4 2.2% 4.7% 5.1% 3.6% 2.0% 0.8%
5 2.0% 4.3% 4.6% 3.3% 1.8% 0.8%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricStenhousemuirMorton
Played11
Form100%100%
Attack27%20%
Defense93%87%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 43 | 3
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 12 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

7.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

7.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

70%
FT probability

BTTS

100%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Stenhousemuir Morton
HATHAT
Played101011
Wins100%—100%—100%100%
Draws0%—0%—0%0%
Loses0%—0%—0%0%

Form: Stenhousemuir: W • Morton: W

League goals

Metric Stenhousemuir Morton
HATHAT
GF total404033
GF avg4.00.04.00.03.03.0
GA total101022
GA avg1.00.01.00.02.02.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineStenhousemuirMorton
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%100%100%
1.5100%0%100%100%
2.5100%0%100%0%
3.5100%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricStenhousemuirMorton
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricStenhousemuirMorton
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricStenhousemuirMorton
Wins11
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-1——2-3
Biggest losses————
Goals For4003
Goals Against1002

Model comparison

MetricStenhousemuirMorton
Form50%50%
Att57%43%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution71%29%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total61.3%38.8%

Advice: Combo Winner : Stenhousemuir and +2.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.00 @ Betfair
Draw3.35 @ Betano
Away2.38 @ William Hill

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.05 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Stenhousemuir = 4.55 (league 1.76), Morton = 2.15 (league 1.40)

Morton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stenhousemuir 0 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%
2 1.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0.5%
3 1.9% 4.2% 4.5% 3.2% 1.7% 0.7%
4 2.2% 4.7% 5.1% 3.6% 2.0% 0.8%
5 2.0% 4.3% 4.6% 3.3% 1.8% 0.8%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.9% · Draw 10.2% · Away win 10.9%

vtt 1 , vtd1