Liga MX — Mexico
Sun, Dec 7 2025 • 01:00 • Estadio Nemesio Diez
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.85 (league 1.54) 1.65 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
57.6% 11.5% 11.1%
best score tips
3 - 1
6.4%
4 - 1
6.2%
3 - 2
5.3%
Score & goals probability table
Monterrey
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
2 3.0% 5.0% 4.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
3 3.9% 6.4% 5.3% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4%
4 3.7% 6.2% 5.1% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4%
5 2.9% 4.8% 3.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTolucaMonterrey
Played55
Form53%47%
Attack31%54%
Defense85%46%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

73%
FT probability

3.5+

52%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toluca Monterrey
HATHAT
Played101020101020
Wins60%60%60%70%40%55%
Draws30%20%25%30%10%20%
Loses10%20%15%0%50%25%

Form: Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDL • Monterrey: LWWWWWWWDLWDDWLDLWLW

League goals

Metric Toluca Monterrey
HATHAT
GF total271845211637
GF avg2.71.82.32.11.61.9
GA total1282092231
GA avg1.20.81.00.92.21.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTolucaMonterrey
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%65%90%70%
1.570%25%55%50%
2.550%5%30%15%
3.520%5%10%10%
4.55%0%0%5%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTolucaMonterrey
HATHAT
Clean sheets347426
Failed to score145022

Penalties

MetricTolucaMonterrey
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total35

Streaks

MetricTolucaMonterrey
Wins77
Draws32
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-33-02-4
Biggest losses3-41-0—6-2
Goals For6444
Goals Against4226

Model comparison

MetricTolucaMonterrey
Form53%47%
Att36%64%
Def78%22%
Poisson Distribution69%31%
H2h50%50%
Goals58%42%
Total57.3%42.7%

Advice: Double chance : Toluca or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.59 @ 188Bet
Draw5.02 @ Pinnacle
Away6.90 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.53 @ Betano
Under 2.52.70 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.40 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Toluca = 3.85 (league 1.54), Monterrey = 1.65 (league 1.16)

Monterrey
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
2 3.0% 5.0% 4.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
3 3.9% 6.4% 5.3% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4%
4 3.7% 6.2% 5.1% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4%
5 2.9% 4.8% 3.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 57.6% · Draw 11.5% · Away win 11.1%

vtt 3 , vtd1