Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.10 (league 1.63)
1.65 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.3% | 21.0% | 30.0% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 1
8.2%
2 - 2
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Kyustendil | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kostinbrod | 0 | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 3.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Kostinbrod -2.0, Kyustendil -3.2.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Kostinbrod
vs
Kyustendil
Elo gapKostinbrod +14
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3056.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3056.3
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Kostinbrod | Kyustendil |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1517.4 | 1538.9 |
| Form Elo | 1523.7 | 1531.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1518.8 | 1485.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1521 | 1659.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1486.9 | 1471.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.0 | -3.2 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Kostinbrod last-5 Elo change: -2.0; Kyustendil last-5 Elo change: -3.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kostinbrod | Kyustendil |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 33% |
| Attack | 44% | 33% |
| Defense | 44% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kostinbrod | Kyustendil | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 13 | 14 | 27 |
| Wins | 57% | 29% | 43% | 62% | 36% | 48% |
| Draws | 14% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 7% | 11% |
| Loses | 29% | 57% | 43% | 23% | 57% | 41% |
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KyustendilLWLWWWWWLLLLDLWWWWWLLWWDLDL
League goals
| Metric | Kostinbrod | Kyustendil | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 15 | 41 | 22 | 20 | 42 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 18 | 23 | 41 | 14 | 25 | 39 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kostinbrod | Kyustendil | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 68% | 74% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 46% | 50% | 41% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 18% | 26% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 7% | 11% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kostinbrod | Kyustendil | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kostinbrod | Kyustendil |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kostinbrod | Kyustendil |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kostinbrod | Kyustendil |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 43% | 57% |
| Total | 50.3% | 49.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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