Primera A — Colombia
Mon, Dec 8 2025 • 20:00 • Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.03 (league 1.11) 0.81 (league 0.79)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
64.2% 20.1% 13.9%
best score tips
2 - 0
12.1%
1 - 0
11.9%
2 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
Fortaleza FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Deportes Tolima 0 5.8% 4.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.9% 9.6% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.1% 9.7% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
3 8.2% 6.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 4.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDeportes TolimaFortaleza FC
Played55
Form73%20%
Attack36%27%
Defense91%18%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.83 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Deportes Tolima Fortaleza FC
HATHAT
Played252651232245
Wins56%50%53%48%18%33%
Draws24%23%24%26%32%29%
Loses20%27%24%26%50%38%

Form: Deportes Tolima: WDWDDLWDLWWWDLWDWWWLDLDWLWLLWWDWWWDLWLLWLWWWWWWDWWD • Fortaleza FC: DLWWLLLDDDLLLWWDLWLLWWDDDDDWDWWLWDWLWWDLLLWLL

League goals

Metric Deportes Tolima Fortaleza FC
HATHAT
GF total383472251843
GF avg1.51.31.41.10.81.0
GA total202545203353
GA avg0.81.00.90.91.51.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDeportes TolimaFortaleza FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%57%64%64%
1.541%20%27%36%
2.518%10%2%11%
3.54%2%2%4%
4.50%0%0%2%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDeportes TolimaFortaleza FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets11112211516
Failed to score56117916

Penalties

MetricDeportes TolimaFortaleza FC
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total26

Streaks

MetricDeportes TolimaFortaleza FC
Wins62
Draws25
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-01-44-00-2
Biggest losses1-33-11-54-0
Goals For4442
Goals Against3454

Model comparison

MetricDeportes TolimaFortaleza FC
Form79%21%
Att57%43%
Def90%10%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total66.3%33.7%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Deportes Tolima or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.82 @ 188Bet
Draw3.60 @ 10Bet
Away5.30 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.05 @ SBO
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.10 @ 188Bet
No1.86 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Deportes Tolima = 2.03 (league 1.11), Fortaleza FC = 0.81 (league 0.79)

Fortaleza FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Deportes Tolima 0 5.8% 4.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.9% 9.6% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.1% 9.7% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
3 8.2% 6.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 4.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.2% · Draw 20.1% · Away win 13.9%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1