Liga MX — Mexico
Fri, Dec 12 2025 • 02:00 • Estadio Universitario (UANL)
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.30 (league 1.54) 1.25 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.6% 26.7% 35.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.7%
1 - 0
10.2%
0 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tigres UANL 0 7.8% 9.8% 6.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
1 10.2% 12.7% 7.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.6% 8.2% 5.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
3 2.9% 3.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTigres UANLToluca
Played55
Form53%67%
Attack67%47%
Defense60%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

87%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tigres UANL Toluca
HATHAT
Played111021111021
Wins64%40%52%64%60%62%
Draws27%50%38%27%20%24%
Loses9%10%10%9%20%14%

Form: Tigres UANL: WWWLDWDDDWWDWWWDWLWDD • Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDLW

League goals

Metric Tigres UANL Toluca
HATHAT
GF total281442301848
GF avg2.51.42.02.71.82.3
GA total9122114822
GA avg0.81.21.01.30.81.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTigres UANLToluca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%57%76%67%
1.548%24%71%29%
2.524%19%52%5%
3.519%0%19%5%
4.514%0%5%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTigres UANLToluca
HATHAT
Clean sheets639347
Failed to score123145

Penalties

MetricTigres UANLToluca
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricTigres UANLToluca
Wins37
Draws33
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins7-00-26-20-3
Biggest losses1-33-03-41-0
Goals For7464
Goals Against3342

Model comparison

MetricTigres UANLToluca
Form44%56%
Att59%41%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h50%50%
Goals44%56%
Total47.7%52.3%

Advice: Double chance : Tigres UANL or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.20 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.45 @ 188Bet
Away3.70 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.02 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.96 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ William Hill
No2.23 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tigres UANL = 1.30 (league 1.54), Toluca = 1.25 (league 1.15)

Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tigres UANL 0 7.8% 9.8% 6.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
1 10.2% 12.7% 7.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.6% 8.2% 5.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
3 2.9% 3.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.6% · Draw 26.7% · Away win 35.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1