Liga MX — Mexico
Mon, Dec 15 2025 • 01:00 • Estadio Nemesio Diez
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.09 (league 1.55) 1.57 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
47.9% 21.0% 28.5%
best score tips
2 - 1
8.8%
1 - 1
8.4%
2 - 2
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
Tigres UANL
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 2.6% 4.0% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
1 5.4% 8.4% 6.6% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4%
2 5.6% 8.8% 6.9% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4%
3 3.9% 6.2% 4.8% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3%
4 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTolucaTigres UANL
Played55
Form47%53%
Attack45%73%
Defense55%55%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

91%
FT probability

2.5+

64%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toluca Tigres UANL
HATHAT
Played111122121022
Wins64%55%59%67%40%55%
Draws27%18%23%25%50%36%
Loses9%27%18%8%10%9%

Form: Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDLWL • Tigres UANL: WWWLDWDDDWWDWWWDWLWDDW

League goals

Metric Toluca Tigres UANL
HATHAT
GF total301848291443
GF avg2.71.62.22.41.42.0
GA total1492391221
GA avg1.30.81.00.81.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTolucaTigres UANL
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%68%86%55%
1.568%27%45%23%
2.550%5%23%18%
3.518%5%18%0%
4.55%0%14%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTolucaTigres UANL
HATHAT
Clean sheets3477310
Failed to score156123

Penalties

MetricTolucaTigres UANL
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricTolucaTigres UANL
Wins73
Draws33
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-37-00-2
Biggest losses3-41-01-33-0
Goals For6474
Goals Against4233

Model comparison

MetricTolucaTigres UANL
Form47%53%
Att38%62%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h50%50%
Goals57%43%
Total49.7%50.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Tigres UANL

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.92 @ 188Bet
Draw4.40 @ 10Bet
Away7.00 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.84 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.12 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.87 @ Betano
No2.28 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Toluca = 2.09 (league 1.55), Tigres UANL = 1.57 (league 1.16)

Tigres UANL
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 2.6% 4.0% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
1 5.4% 8.4% 6.6% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4%
2 5.6% 8.8% 6.9% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4%
3 3.9% 6.2% 4.8% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3%
4 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.9% · Draw 21.0% · Away win 28.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1