Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 23:45 •
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Expected Goals
2.55 (league 1.27)
1.30 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.0%
3 - 1
7.6%
1 - 1
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| New England Revolution | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atlanta United FC | 0 | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.9% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Atlanta United FC -29.2, New England Revolution +10.6.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Atlanta United FC
vs
New England Revolution
Elo gapNew England Revolution +4
Home / draw / away34% / 30% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo3000.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3000.2
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Atlanta United FC | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1480.8 | 1519.4 |
| Form Elo | 1453.5 | 1525.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1505.8 | 1487.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1482.8 | 1635.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1525.8 | 1519.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -29.2 | +10.6 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Atlanta United FC last-5 Elo change: -29.2; New England Revolution last-5 Elo change: +10.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atlanta United FC | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 80% |
| Attack | 18% | 59% |
| Defense | 68% | 77% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atlanta United FC | New England Revolution | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 20% | 0% | 13% | 100% | 0% | 57% |
| Draws | 20% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 60% | 100% | 75% | 0% | 100% | 43% |
Atlanta United FCLLLWDLLL
New England RevolutionLLWLWWW
League goals
| Metric | Atlanta United FC | New England Revolution | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 9 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atlanta United FC | New England Revolution | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 38% | 88% | 86% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 63% | 43% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 25% | 29% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 14% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 14% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atlanta United FC | New England Revolution | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atlanta United FC | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atlanta United FC | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | — | 6-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 2-0 | — | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atlanta United FC | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 24% | 76% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 63% | 37% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 54% | 46% |
| Total | 41.3% | 58.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.41 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.50 @ Unibet
Away3.15 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.89 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.00 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ William Hill
No2.16 @ Unibet
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League standings
Loading standings…