Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 20:45 •
Allianz Field
Expected Goals
0.55 (league 1.27)
1.44 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 14.1% | 26.8% | 58.7% |
best score tips
0 - 1
19.6%
0 - 2
14.2%
0 - 0
13.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Los Angeles FC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Minnesota United FC | 0 | 13.6% | 19.6% | 14.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Los Angeles FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 70 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Minnesota United FC +52.6, Los Angeles FC -18.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Minnesota United FC
vs
Los Angeles FC
Elo gapLos Angeles FC +70
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share40%
Combined Elo3228.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3228.2
Elo home share
40%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1561.5 | 1666.7 |
| Form Elo | 1589 | 1664.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1517.5 | 1552 |
| Attack Elo | 1526.9 | 1711.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1545.1 | 1669.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +52.6 | -18.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Minnesota United FC last-5 Elo change: +52.6; Los Angeles FC last-5 Elo change: -18.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 33% |
| Attack | 70% | 80% |
| Defense | 80% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
48%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Wins | 67% | 50% | 56% | 67% | 33% | 56% |
| Draws | 33% | 17% | 22% | 17% | 33% | 22% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 22% | 17% | 33% | 22% |
Minnesota United FCDWLLDWWWW
Los Angeles FCWWWWDWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 16 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 0 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 56% | 78% | 22% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 33% | 44% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 22% | 22% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 11% | 11% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-2 | 6-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 6-0 | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 72% | 28% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 47.8% | 52.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.80 @ 888Sport
Draw3.60 @ 10Bet
Away2.86 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.75 @ Betano
Under 2.52.20 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.62 @ Bet365
No2.40 @ Unibet
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League standings
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