Major League Soccer — USA
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 23:30 • Audi Field
Not Started

DC United

—

Orlando City SC

Expected Goals
2.37 (league 1.27) 0.62 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
73.1% 15.6% 7.9%
best score tips
2 - 0
14.1%
1 - 0
11.9%
3 - 0
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
Orlando City SC
0 1 2 3 4 5
DC United 0 5.0% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 11.9% 7.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.1% 8.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 11.2% 6.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 6.6% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
5 3.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

DC United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 59 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: DC United +14.5, Orlando City SC -47.8.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
DC United Elo 1450.8 · +14.5
vs
Orlando City SC Elo 1427.3 · -47.8
Elo gapDC United +59
Home / draw / away44% / 23% / 33%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2878.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2878.1
Elo home share 58%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric DC United Orlando City SC
Overall Elo1450.81427.3
Form Elo1464.81385.4
Home / Away Elo14951477.4
Attack Elo1447.11498.2
Defense Elo1422.71309.9
Last 5 Elo change+14.5-47.8

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. DC United last-5 Elo change: +14.5; Orlando City SC last-5 Elo change: -47.8.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDC UnitedOrlando City SC
Played55
Form20%27%
Attack40%50%
Defense10%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.814 | 2.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric DC United Orlando City SC
HATHAT
Played369549
Wins33%17%22%40%0%22%
Draws0%50%33%0%25%11%
Loses67%33%44%60%75%67%
DC UnitedWLLWDLLDD
Orlando City SCLLLWLLDLW

League goals

Metric DC United Orlando City SC
HATHAT
GF total2689110
GF avg0.71.00.91.80.31.1
GA total671391726
GA avg2.01.21.41.84.32.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDC UnitedOrlando City SC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.544%67%56%100%
1.522%33%33%56%
2.511%22%11%44%
3.511%22%11%44%
4.50%0%0%33%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDC UnitedOrlando City SC
HATHAT
Clean sheets123000
Failed to score145134

Penalties

MetricDC UnitedOrlando City SC
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricDC UnitedOrlando City SC
Wins11
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-01-24-1—
Biggest losses0-41-02-46-0
Goals For1441
Goals Against4446

Model comparison

MetricDC UnitedOrlando City SC
Form43%57%
Att44%56%
Def61%39%
Poisson Distribution79%21%
H2h29%71%
Goals33%67%
Total48.2%51.8%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.06 @ Unibet
Draw3.70 @ Pinnacle
Away3.81 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.23 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.35 @ Unibet
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League standings

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