Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 00:30 •
Q2 Stadium
Expected Goals
2.61 (league 1.27)
2.06 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.6% | 18.5% | 29.2% |
best score tips
2 - 2
6.8%
2 - 1
6.6%
3 - 2
5.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Houston Dynamo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Austin | 0 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 3.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 2.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Houston Dynamo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 44 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Austin -16.8, Houston Dynamo -6.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Austin
vs
Houston Dynamo
Elo gapHouston Dynamo +44
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo2955.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2955.1
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Austin | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1438.1 | 1517 |
| Form Elo | 1426.8 | 1520.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.6 | 1502.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1431.5 | 1556.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1438.5 | 1398.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -16.8 | -6.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Austin last-5 Elo change: -16.8; Houston Dynamo last-5 Elo change: -6.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Austin | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 40% |
| Attack | 58% | 58% |
| Defense | 0% | 8% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
71%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Austin | Houston Dynamo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Wins | 25% | 0% | 11% | 60% | 33% | 50% |
| Draws | 50% | 40% | 44% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 25% | 60% | 44% | 40% | 67% | 50% |
AustinDWLLDDLDL
Houston DynamoWLWLLLWW
League goals
| Metric | Austin | Houston Dynamo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 4 | 15 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 16 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Austin | Houston Dynamo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 78% | 75% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 78% | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 33% | 25% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 25% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Austin | Houston Dynamo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Austin | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Austin | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 5-1 | 0-2 | 6-2 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Austin | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 48% | 52% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 47.2% | 52.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.04 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.51 @ Pinnacle
Away2.80 @ 888Sport
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.85 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.10 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.65 @ William Hill
No2.30 @ Betfair
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League standings
Loading standings…