Thu, Dec 18 2025 • 00:30 • Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.94 (league 1.38) 2.99 (league 0.87)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
8.7% 12.9% 70.1%
best score tips
0 - 2
8.7%
0 - 3
8.7%
1 - 2
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 2.0% 5.9% 8.7% 8.7% 6.5% 3.9%
1 1.9% 5.5% 8.3% 8.2% 6.1% 3.7%
2 0.9% 2.6% 3.9% 3.9% 2.9% 1.7%
3 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Played55
Form53%73%
Attack50%75%
Defense75%75%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Independiente Medellin Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins25%60%44%80%50%67%
Draws50%40%44%20%50%33%
Loses25%0%11%0%0%0%

Form: Independiente Medellin: DWDWLWWDD • Atletico Nacional: WWWDWWWDD

League goals

Metric Independiente Medellin Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
GF total551011819
GF avg1.31.01.12.22.02.1
GA total505145
GA avg1.30.00.60.21.00.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%44%89%33%
1.522%11%67%22%
2.511%0%33%0%
3.50%0%22%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets055426
Failed to score022101

Penalties

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Wins23
Draws11
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-34-00-3
Biggest losses1-2———
Goals For2343
Goals Against2012

Model comparison

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Form42%58%
Att40%60%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution24%76%
H2h25%75%
Goals38%63%
Total36.5%63.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico Nacional

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.75 @ Betano
Draw3.15 @ Betano
Away2.92 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.62 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.02 @ Pinnacle
No1.80 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Independiente Medellin = 0.94 (league 1.38), Atletico Nacional = 2.99 (league 0.87)

Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 2.0% 5.9% 8.7% 8.7% 6.5% 3.9%
1 1.9% 5.5% 8.3% 8.2% 6.1% 3.7%
2 0.9% 2.6% 3.9% 3.9% 2.9% 1.7%
3 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 8.7% · Draw 12.9% · Away win 70.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1