Thu, Dec 18 2025 • 00:30 •
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Expected Goals
0.96 (league 1.36)
3.03 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | 12.7% | 70.0% |
best score tips
0 - 3
8.6%
0 - 2
8.5%
1 - 3
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Atletico Nacional | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Independiente Medellin | 0 | 1.9% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 3.9% |
| 1 | 1.8% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.8% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 73% |
| Attack | 50% | 75% |
| Defense | 75% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 25% | 60% | 44% | 80% | 50% | 67% |
| Draws | 50% | 40% | 44% | 20% | 50% | 33% |
| Loses | 25% | 0% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Independiente MedellinDWDWLWWDD
Atletico NacionalWWWDWWWDD
League goals
| Metric | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 19 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 44% | 89% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 11% | 67% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 22% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 24% | 76% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 38% | 63% |
| Total | 36.5% | 63.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.75 @ Betano
Draw3.15 @ Betano
Away2.92 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.62 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.02 @ Pinnacle
No1.80 @ 10Bet
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League standings
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