Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:00 •
Ayutthaya Province Stadium
Expected Goals
0.87 (league 1.65)
1.21 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.6% | 29.5% | 43.7% |
best score tips
0 - 1
15.1%
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 0
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Prachuap | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ayutthaya FC | 0 | 12.4% | 15.1% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Prachuap carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 24 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ayutthaya FC -37.2, Prachuap +4.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Ayutthaya FC
vs
Prachuap
Elo gapPrachuap +24
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3134
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3134
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Ayutthaya FC | Prachuap |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1537.5 | 1596.5 |
| Form Elo | 1520.5 | 1606.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1511 | 1515.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1557 | 1562.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1588.2 | 1595.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -37.2 | +4.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Ayutthaya FC last-5 Elo change: -37.2; Prachuap last-5 Elo change: +4.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ayutthaya FC | Prachuap |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 53% |
| Attack | 13% | 31% |
| Defense | 50% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ayutthaya FC | Prachuap | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 15% | 43% | 30% | 50% | 15% | 33% |
| Draws | 31% | 29% | 30% | 43% | 46% | 44% |
| Loses | 54% | 29% | 41% | 7% | 38% | 22% |
Ayutthaya FCLDWDDLDLLWLWDDWWLDWDLWLWLLL
PrachuapDLDLWDWDWWDLLDLDWDDDWWWDDLW
League goals
| Metric | Ayutthaya FC | Prachuap | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 19 | 31 | 22 | 12 | 34 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 21 | 18 | 39 | 12 | 21 | 33 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ayutthaya FC | Prachuap | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 81% | 70% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 26% | 41% | 37% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 15% | 11% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 7% | 7% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ayutthaya FC | Prachuap | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ayutthaya FC | Prachuap |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ayutthaya FC | Prachuap |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-4 | 2-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ayutthaya FC | Prachuap |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 27% | 73% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 31% | 69% |
| Total | 31.0% | 69.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.06 @ 1xBet
Draw3.30 @ Betfair
Away2.40 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.96 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.88 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ Bet365
No2.10 @ Unibet
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League standings
Loading standings…