Fri, Mar 6 2026 • 19:15 • Stade de la Fontenette
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.40 (league 1.50) 2.55 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
19.2% 18.0% 58.0%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.8%
1 - 3
7.5%
1 - 1
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
FC Aarau
0 1 2 3 4 5
Étoile Carouge 0 1.9% 4.9% 6.3% 5.3% 3.4% 1.7%
1 2.7% 6.9% 8.8% 7.5% 4.8% 2.4%
2 1.9% 4.8% 6.1% 5.2% 3.3% 1.7%
3 0.9% 2.2% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.8%
4 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
Played55
Form53%53%
Attack64%86%
Defense36%21%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.812 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.811 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

90%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Étoile Carouge FC Aarau
HATHAT
Played121224121224
Wins25%17%21%75%67%71%
Draws33%25%29%8%8%8%
Loses42%58%50%17%25%21%

Form: Étoile Carouge: LDLLDLWLWLLWDLLDLLDWDLDW • FC Aarau: WWWWWWWWLWWWLLWWWLWWDLDW

League goals

Metric Étoile Carouge FC Aarau
HATHAT
GF total131225222648
GF avg1.11.01.01.82.22.0
GA total181836102333
GA avg1.51.51.50.81.91.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%79%96%71%
1.529%54%67%29%
2.58%17%21%21%
3.50%0%8%13%
4.50%0%8%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
HATHAT
Clean sheets235617
Failed to score358101

Penalties

MetricÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
Wins18
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-33-01-3
Biggest losses1-33-11-25-1
Goals For2355
Goals Against3335

Model comparison

MetricÉtoile CarougeFC Aarau
Form50%50%
Att43%57%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution35%65%
H2h29%71%
Goals38%63%
Total41.7%58.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or FC Aarau and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.13 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.17 @ Pinnacle
Away1.85 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.57 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.55 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ Bet365
No2.51 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Étoile Carouge = 1.40 (league 1.50), FC Aarau = 2.55 (league 1.29)

FC Aarau
0 1 2 3 4 5
Étoile Carouge 0 1.9% 4.9% 6.3% 5.3% 3.4% 1.7%
1 2.7% 6.9% 8.8% 7.5% 4.8% 2.4%
2 1.9% 4.8% 6.1% 5.2% 3.3% 1.7%
3 0.9% 2.2% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.8%
4 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 19.2% · Draw 18.0% · Away win 58.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1