Stars League — Qatar
Tue, Jan 6 2026 • 14:30 • Thani bin Jassim Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.58 (league 1.62) 2.39 (league 1.61)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.5% 19.4% 52.1%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.5%
1 - 1
7.1%
1 - 3
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
Al-Gharafa
0 1 2 3 4 5
UMM Salal 0 1.9% 4.5% 5.4% 4.3% 2.5% 1.2%
1 3.0% 7.1% 8.5% 6.8% 4.0% 1.9%
2 2.4% 5.7% 6.7% 5.4% 3.2% 1.5%
3 1.3% 3.0% 3.6% 2.8% 1.7% 0.8%
4 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUMM SalalAl-Gharafa
Played55
Form20%80%
Attack73%82%
Defense0%45%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)17 | 3.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

77%
FT probability

3.5+

55%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric UMM Salal Al-Gharafa
HATHAT
Played56116511
Wins40%17%27%100%40%73%
Draws0%0%0%0%20%9%
Loses60%83%73%0%40%18%

Form: UMM Salal: LWLLWLLLLLW • Al-Gharafa: WWLWDWWWWWL

League goals

Metric UMM Salal Al-Gharafa
HATHAT
GF total8122014620
GF avg1.62.01.82.31.21.8
GA total1616325813
GA avg3.22.72.90.81.61.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUMM SalalAl-Gharafa
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.591%82%73%73%
1.573%73%64%36%
2.518%55%36%9%
3.50%36%9%0%
4.50%18%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUMM SalalAl-Gharafa
HATHAT
Clean sheets112213
Failed to score101033

Penalties

MetricUMM SalalAl-Gharafa
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total15

Streaks

MetricUMM SalalAl-Gharafa
Wins15
Draws01
Losses51

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-34-21-3
Biggest losses3-84-2—3-0
Goals For3343
Goals Against8423

Model comparison

MetricUMM SalalAl-Gharafa
Form20%80%
Att47%53%
Def26%74%
Poisson Distribution38%62%
H2h20%80%
Goals45%55%
Total32.7%67.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Al-Gharafa and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.00 @ 188Bet
Draw4.60 @ 188Bet
Away1.71 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.60 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.50 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.65 @ Pinnacle
No2.50 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): UMM Salal = 1.58 (league 1.62), Al-Gharafa = 2.39 (league 1.61)

Al-Gharafa
0 1 2 3 4 5
UMM Salal 0 1.9% 4.5% 5.4% 4.3% 2.5% 1.2%
1 3.0% 7.1% 8.5% 6.8% 4.0% 1.9%
2 2.4% 5.7% 6.7% 5.4% 3.2% 1.5%
3 1.3% 3.0% 3.6% 2.8% 1.7% 0.8%
4 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 24.5% · Draw 19.4% · Away win 52.1%

vtt 4 , vtd1