Liga MX — Mexico
Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 03:05 • Estadio BBVA
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.09 (league 1.54) 1.24 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.2% 28.1% 39.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Monterrey 0 9.8% 12.1% 7.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2%
1 10.6% 13.2% 8.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3%
2 5.8% 7.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
3 2.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMonterreyToluca
Played55
Form40%47%
Attack89%67%
Defense0%44%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Monterrey Toluca
HATHAT
Played101121121123
Wins70%36%52%67%55%61%
Draws30%9%19%25%18%22%
Loses0%55%29%8%27%17%

Form: Monterrey: LWWWWWWWDLWDDWLDLWLWL • Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDLWLW

League goals

Metric Monterrey Toluca
HATHAT
GF total211839331851
GF avg2.11.61.92.81.62.2
GA total9253415924
GA avg0.92.31.61.30.81.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMonterreyToluca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%71%74%70%
1.557%52%70%26%
2.529%19%52%4%
3.510%10%17%4%
4.50%5%4%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMonterreyToluca
HATHAT
Clean sheets426347
Failed to score022156

Penalties

MetricMonterreyToluca
Scored (total | %)6 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total64

Streaks

MetricMonterreyToluca
Wins77
Draws23
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-02-46-20-3
Biggest losses—6-23-41-0
Goals For4464
Goals Against2642

Model comparison

MetricMonterreyToluca
Form46%54%
Att57%43%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h40%60%
Goals41%59%
Total44.2%55.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Toluca

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.14 @ SBO
Draw3.95 @ Unibet
Away4.10 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.02 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.12 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.70 @ Betfair
No2.27 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Monterrey = 1.09 (league 1.54), Toluca = 1.24 (league 1.16)

Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Monterrey 0 9.8% 12.1% 7.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2%
1 10.6% 13.2% 8.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3%
2 5.8% 7.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
3 2.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.2% · Draw 28.1% · Away win 39.4%

vtt 1 , vtd1