Sun, May 3 2026 • 20:00 •
Claudio Fabian Tapia
Expected Goals
1.85 (league 1.01)
0.83 (league 0.76)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.3% | 22.1% | 16.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
12.6%
2 - 0
11.7%
1 - 1
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Banfield | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Barracas Central | 0 | 6.8% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.6% | 10.5% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.7% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.2% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Barracas Central carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 66 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Barracas Central +1.4, Banfield -5.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Barracas Central
vs
Banfield
Elo gapBarracas Central +66
Home / draw / away46% / 22% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3038.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3038.7
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Barracas Central | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1534.8 | 1503.9 |
| Form Elo | 1543.9 | 1495.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1493.6 | 1457 |
| Attack Elo | 1436.1 | 1481.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1579.4 | 1537.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.4 | -5.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Barracas Central last-5 Elo change: +1.4; Banfield last-5 Elo change: -5.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Barracas Central | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 33% |
| Attack | 27% | 27% |
| Defense | 73% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
60%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Barracas Central | Banfield | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Wins | 43% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 27% |
| Draws | 29% | 50% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 20% |
| Loses | 29% | 25% | 27% | 25% | 86% | 53% |
Barracas CentralLDDWLLWDWWDLWDD
BanfieldDLWLLWLWLLWLLDD
League goals
| Metric | Barracas Central | Banfield | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 6 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Barracas Central | Banfield | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 73% | 67% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 13% | 27% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Barracas Central | Banfield | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Barracas Central | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Barracas Central | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-2 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Barracas Central | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 62.2% | 37.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.56 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.90 @ Bet365
Away3.30 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.53.00 @ BetVictor
Under 2.51.42 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.25 @ 10Bet
No1.60 @ Betano
📊
League standings
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