Sun, May 3 2026 • 20:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.42 (league 1.01)
0.09 (league 0.76)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 72.3% | 25.1% | 2.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
31.3%
2 - 0
22.2%
0 - 0
22.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Deportivo Riestra | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lanus | 0 | 22.1% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 31.3% | 2.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 22.2% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Lanus carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 151 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lanus +3.1, Deportivo Riestra -19.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Lanus
vs
Deportivo Riestra
Elo gapLanus +151
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo3091.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3091.2
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Lanus | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1603.4 | 1487.8 |
| Form Elo | 1591.8 | 1473.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1584.5 | 1478.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1530.3 | 1387.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1653.6 | 1625.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.1 | -19.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lanus last-5 Elo change: +3.1; Deportivo Riestra last-5 Elo change: -19.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lanus | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 27% |
| Attack | 13% | 20% |
| Defense | 80% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
46%
FT probability
2.5+
33%
FT probability
3.5+
23%
FT probability
BTTS
49%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lanus | Deportivo Riestra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Wins | 43% | 38% | 40% | 13% | 0% | 7% |
| Draws | 43% | 25% | 33% | 63% | 29% | 47% |
| Loses | 14% | 38% | 27% | 25% | 71% | 47% |
LanusWWDDLDLWWWLDWLD
Deportivo RiestraLLDLDDDDDLDLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Lanus | Deportivo Riestra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 9 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| GA total | 5 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lanus | Deportivo Riestra | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 60% | 27% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 33% | 7% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lanus | Deportivo Riestra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lanus | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lanus | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 5 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 2-3 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lanus | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 91% | 9% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 14% | 86% |
| Total | 53.6% | 46.4% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.90 @ 10Bet
Draw3.20 @ Unibet
Away5.25 @ BetVictor
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.53.10 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.42 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.62 @ Bet365
No1.52 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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