Sarmiento Junin vs Tigre

Liga Profesional Argentina — Argentina

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 22:15 • Estadio Eva Peron

Not Started

Sarmiento Junin

—

Tigre

Expected Goals

0.88 (league 1.00) 1.19 (league 0.75)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
27.0%	29.7%	43.2%

best score tips

0 - 1

15.0%

1 - 1

13.2%

0 - 0

12.6%

Score & goals probability table

		Tigre
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Sarmiento Junin	0	12.6%	15.0%	9.0%	3.6%	1.1%	0.3%
	1	11.1%	13.2%	7.9%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%
	2	4.9%	5.8%	3.5%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
	3	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
	4	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Sarmiento Junin +25.9, Tigre -25.5.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Sarmiento Junin Elo 1475.8 · +25.9

Tigre Elo 1517.9 · -25.5

Elo gapTigre +7

Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%

Expected home share49%

Combined Elo2993.7

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2993.7

Elo home share 49%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Sarmiento Junin	Tigre
Overall Elo	1475.8	1517.9
Form Elo	1485.5	1503.2
Home / Away Elo	1482.6	1514.8
Attack Elo	1398.1	1430.9
Defense Elo	1529.6	1602.2
Last 5 Elo change	+25.9	-25.5

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Sarmiento Junin last-5 Elo change: +25.9; Tigre last-5 Elo change: -25.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Sarmiento Junin	Tigre
Played	5	5
Form	40%	20%
Attack	43%	14%
Defense	50%	64%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	6 \| 1.2	2 \| 0.4
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	7 \| 1.4	5 \| 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

56%

FT probability

2.5+

40%

FT probability

3.5+

28%

FT probability

BTTS

60%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

3-5

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Sarmiento Junin			Tigre
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	7	7	14	8	6	14
Wins	57%	14%	36%	38%	17%	29%
Draws	14%	0%	7%	50%	50%	50%
Loses	29%	86%	57%	13%	33%	21%

Sarmiento JuninLWLWLLLWDLWWLL

TigreWDWWWDLDDDLLDD

League goals

Metric	Sarmiento Junin			Tigre
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	8	4	12	11	6	17
GF avg	1.1	0.6	0.9	1.4	1.0	1.2
GA total	6	10	16	8	5	13
GA avg	0.9	1.4	1.1	1.0	0.8	0.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Sarmiento Junin		Tigre
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	64%	71%	71%	71%
1.5	21%	36%	29%	21%
2.5	0%	7%	14%	0%
3.5	0%	0%	7%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Sarmiento Junin			Tigre
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	4	0	4	2	2	4
Failed to score	1	4	5	1	3	4

Penalties

Metric	Sarmiento Junin	Tigre
Scored (total \| %)	3 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	3	0

Streaks

Metric	Sarmiento Junin	Tigre
Wins	2	3
Draws	1	3
Losses	3	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	2-0	1-2	3-1	1-4
Biggest losses	1-3	2-0	0-2	2-1
Goals For	2	2	3	4
Goals Against	3	2	2	2

Model comparison

Metric	Sarmiento Junin	Tigre
Form	67%	33%
Att	75%	25%
Def	42%	58%
Poisson Distribution	45%	55%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	57%	43%
Total	56.0%	44.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.40 @ Bet365

Draw2.95 @ Unibet

Away2.55 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.21 @ Pinnacle

Under 2.51.40 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.38 @ Bet365

No1.58 @ Unibet

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Sarmiento Junin vs Tigre

Metric	Sarmiento Junin	Tigre
Scored (total \| %)	3 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	3	0