Liga Profesional Argentina — Argentina
Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 21:45 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Velez Sarsfield

—

Union Santa Fe

Expected Goals
1.89 (league 1.00) 1.06 (league 0.75)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
55.5% 22.3% 20.8%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 0
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
Union Santa Fe
0 1 2 3 4 5
Velez Sarsfield 0 5.2% 5.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
1 9.9% 10.5% 5.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 9.4% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 5.9% 6.3% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 2.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

Velez Sarsfield carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 75 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Velez Sarsfield +12.4, Union Santa Fe +7.5.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Velez Sarsfield Elo 1555.1 · +12.4
vs
Union Santa Fe Elo 1515.1 · +7.5
Elo gapVelez Sarsfield +75
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3070.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3070.2
Elo home share 61%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Velez Sarsfield Union Santa Fe
Overall Elo1555.11515.1
Form Elo1573.11521.8
Home / Away Elo1520.11484
Attack Elo1490.41450.3
Defense Elo1626.41602.3
Last 5 Elo change+12.4+7.5

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Velez Sarsfield last-5 Elo change: +12.4; Union Santa Fe last-5 Elo change: +7.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVelez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe
Played55
Form47%27%
Attack56%67%
Defense56%11%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Velez Sarsfield Union Santa Fe
HATHAT
Played68147714
Wins67%38%50%43%29%36%
Draws17%50%36%43%14%29%
Loses17%13%14%14%57%36%
Velez SarsfieldWWDWDWDWDWLLWD
Union Santa FeDLWLDWWWDDLWLL

League goals

Metric Velez Sarsfield Union Santa Fe
HATHAT
GF total6915101121
GF avg1.01.11.11.41.61.5
GA total36941317
GA avg0.50.80.60.61.91.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVelez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.579%50%71%64%
1.529%7%43%36%
2.50%7%21%14%
3.50%0%14%7%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVelez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe
HATHAT
Clean sheets347505
Failed to score213224

Penalties

MetricVelez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricVelez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe
Wins23
Draws12
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-24-01-3
Biggest losses0-13-22-32-0
Goals For2244
Goals Against1334

Model comparison

MetricVelez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe
Form64%36%
Att45%55%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h50%50%
Goals69%31%
Total59.8%40.2%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.22 @ Betano
Draw3.15 @ Unibet
Away3.90 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.63 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.53 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ 10Bet
No1.70 @ William Hill
📊

League standings

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League page • Country page • Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe