Thu, Feb 12 2026 • 00:30 •
Estadio Do MorumBIS
Expected Goals
2.95 (league 1.36)
1.16 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.8% | 14.3% | 11.8% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.3%
3 - 1
8.1%
2 - 0
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Gremio | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sao Paulo | 0 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.1% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.0% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.2% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sao Paulo | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 2 |
| Form | 67% | 50% |
| Attack | 14% | 27% |
| Defense | 91% | 77% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 1.5 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2.5 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
70%
FT probability
3.5+
50%
FT probability
BTTS
94%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-1
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sao Paulo | Gremio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 0% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 100% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 50% |
Sao PauloWD
GremioLW
League goals
| Metric | Sao Paulo | Gremio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| GA total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sao Paulo | Gremio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 50% | 100% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sao Paulo | Gremio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sao Paulo | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sao Paulo | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | 5-3 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sao Paulo | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 71% | 29% |
| Poisson Distribution | 74% | 26% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 58.8% | 41.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.05 @ 188Bet
Draw3.30 @ Unibet
Away4.60 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.17 @ SBO
Under 2.51.78 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.92 @ Pinnacle
No1.93 @ Pinnacle
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League standings
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