Thu, Feb 26 2026 • 00:30 •
Arena do Grêmio
Expected Goals
3.69 (league 1.36)
5.92 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | 7.9% | 21.3% |
best score tips
3 - 5
3.4%
4 - 5
3.1%
3 - 4
2.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Atletico-MG | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gremio | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Gremio | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 33% | 22% |
| Attack | 75% | 63% |
| Defense | 13% | 25% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.7 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 2.3 | 6 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
61%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Gremio | Atletico-MG | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 67% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 67% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
GremioLWL
Atletico-MGDLD
League goals
| Metric | Gremio | Atletico-MG | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| GF avg | 5.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GA avg | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Gremio | Atletico-MG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 100% | 67% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 100% | 67% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Gremio | Atletico-MG | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Gremio | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Gremio | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-3 | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | — | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Gremio | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 46% | 54% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 49.0% | 51.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.27 @ 1xBet
Draw3.45 @ 188Bet
Away3.44 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.11 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.87 @ 188Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No2.03 @ Pinnacle
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League standings
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