Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria

Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 21:30 • Arena da Baixada

Not Started

home	draw	away
76.5%	6.4%	2.3%

		Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense	0	1.8%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	6.3%	3.1%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2	11.2%	5.4%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
3	13.2%	6.4%	1.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	11.7%	5.7%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
5	8.3%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Home edge

Atletico Paranaense carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 60 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atletico Paranaense -6.3, Vitoria +33.6.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone

Atletico Paranaense Elo 1613.8 · -6.3

Vitoria Elo 1588.4 · +33.6

Elo gapAtletico Paranaense +60

Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%

Expected home share59%

Combined Elo3202.2

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home edge

Confidence band Medium confidence

Upset risk Medium

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3202.2

Elo home share 59%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Atletico Paranaense	Vitoria
Overall Elo	1613.8	1588.4
Form Elo	1617.5	1606.6
Home / Away Elo	1540.8	1485
Attack Elo	1611.9	1528.6
Defense Elo	1629.4	1592.1
Last 5 Elo change	-6.3	+33.6

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Atletico Paranaense last-5 Elo change: -6.3; Vitoria last-5 Elo change: +33.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Atletico Paranaense	Vitoria
Played	5	5
Form	40%	53%
Attack	44%	25%
Defense	56%	75%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	7 \| 1.4	4 \| 0.8
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	7 \| 1.4	4 \| 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%

FT probability

2.5+

53%

FT probability

3.5+

38%

FT probability

BTTS

69%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Atletico Paranaense			Vitoria
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	6	6	12	6	5	11
Wins	83%	17%	50%	67%	0%	36%
Draws	0%	17%	8%	17%	40%	27%
Loses	17%	67%	42%	17%	60%	36%

Atletico ParanaenseWWLDLWWWLLWL

VitoriaWLLDWLWLDWD

League goals

Metric	Atletico Paranaense			Vitoria
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	12	5	17	8	3	11
GF avg	2.0	0.8	1.4	1.3	0.6	1.0
GA total	4	10	14	2	12	14
GA avg	0.7	1.7	1.2	0.3	2.4	1.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Atletico Paranaense		Vitoria
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	75%	75%	73%	55%
1.5	50%	25%	27%	36%
2.5	8%	17%	0%	18%
3.5	8%	0%	0%	9%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	9%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Atletico Paranaense			Vitoria
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	2	1	3	5	0	5
Failed to score	1	2	3	1	2	3

Penalties

Metric	Atletico Paranaense	Vitoria
Scored (total \| %)	2 \| 100.00%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	2	1

Streaks

Metric	Atletico Paranaense	Vitoria
Wins	3	1
Draws	1	1
Losses	2	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	4-1	0-1	2-0	—
Biggest losses	0-1	3-0	1-2	5-1
Goals For	4	2	2	1
Goals Against	1	3	2	5

Model comparison

Metric	Atletico Paranaense	Vitoria
Form	43%	57%
Att	64%	36%
Def	36%	64%
Poisson Distribution	89%	11%
H2h	80%	20%
Goals	69%	31%
Total	63.5%	36.5%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.70 @ Betano

Draw3.80 @ Betano

Away5.90 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.22 @ Betano

Under 2.51.70 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ Betfair

No1.70 @ William Hill

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria

Metric	Atletico Paranaense	Vitoria
Scored (total \| %)	2 \| 100.00%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	2	1

Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria