Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 21:30 •
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Expected Goals
1.36 (league 1.36)
2.09 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.4% | 21.0% | 52.3% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.4%
1 - 1
9.0%
0 - 2
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Internacional | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Botafogo | 0 | 3.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 2.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Botafogo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 69 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Botafogo +32.1, Internacional -12.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Botafogo
vs
Internacional
Elo gapBotafogo +69
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo3177.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3177.5
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Botafogo | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1605.8 | 1571.7 |
| Form Elo | 1630.5 | 1556.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1559.1 | 1519.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1579.1 | 1616.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1621.8 | 1549 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +32.1 | -12.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Botafogo last-5 Elo change: +32.1; Internacional last-5 Elo change: -12.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Botafogo | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 53% |
| Attack | 75% | 31% |
| Defense | 38% | 81% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Botafogo | Internacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Wins | 50% | 43% | 45% | 14% | 40% | 25% |
| Draws | 25% | 0% | 9% | 29% | 40% | 33% |
| Loses | 25% | 57% | 45% | 57% | 20% | 42% |
BotafogoWLLLLWLWWDW
InternacionalLDLDLLWWDWDL
League goals
| Metric | Botafogo | Internacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 13 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 7 | 15 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Botafogo | Internacional | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 91% | 67% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 64% | 55% | 17% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 27% | 0% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 18% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Botafogo | Internacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Botafogo | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Botafogo | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-4 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-1 | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Botafogo | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 71% | 29% |
| Def | 23% | 77% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 51.5% | 48.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.54 @ 1xBet
Draw3.20 @ Betfair
Away3.20 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.15 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.78 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ William Hill
No2.05 @ Betano
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League standings
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