Expected Goals
2.39 (league 1.36)
0.35 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 79.5% | 13.1% | 3.9% |
best score tips
2 - 0
18.5%
1 - 0
15.5%
3 - 0
14.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Chapecoense-sc | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fluminense | 0 | 6.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.5% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.5% | 6.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.7% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Fluminense carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 156 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fluminense -5.7, Chapecoense-sc -37.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Fluminense
vs
Chapecoense-sc
Elo gapFluminense +156
Home / draw / away58% / 18% / 24%
Expected home share71%
Combined Elo3199.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3199.9
Elo home share
71%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Fluminense | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1660.6 | 1539.3 |
| Form Elo | 1665.7 | 1516.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1614.2 | 1474.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1583.5 | 1518.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1683.4 | 1582.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.7 | -37.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Fluminense last-5 Elo change: -5.7; Chapecoense-sc last-5 Elo change: -37.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fluminense | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 7% |
| Attack | 56% | 13% |
| Defense | 63% | 19% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fluminense | Chapecoense-sc | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| Wins | 83% | 33% | 58% | 14% | 0% | 9% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 17% | 57% | 25% | 45% |
| Loses | 17% | 33% | 25% | 29% | 75% | 45% |
FluminenseWDWLWWLWWDLW
Chapecoense-scWDDLDDLLDLL
League goals
| Metric | Fluminense | Chapecoense-sc | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 10 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 6 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 22 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fluminense | Chapecoense-sc | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 75% | 55% | 91% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 42% | 18% | 64% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 8% | 18% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 18% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fluminense | Chapecoense-sc | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fluminense | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fluminense | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 4-2 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-2 | 0-4 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fluminense | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 91% | 9% |
| Att | 82% | 18% |
| Def | 68% | 32% |
| Poisson Distribution | 90% | 10% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 69% | 31% |
| Total | 80.8% | 19.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.31 @ Betano
Draw5.68 @ Pinnacle
Away14.00 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.72 @ Betano
Under 2.52.28 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.10 @ Bet365
No1.73 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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