Serie A — Brazil
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 00:00 • Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa
First Half

Sao Paulo

0 - 0

Mirassol

Expected Goals
2.36 (league 1.36) 0.83 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
68.1% 17.1% 11.4%
best score tips
2 - 0
11.4%
1 - 0
9.7%
2 - 1
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Mirassol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sao Paulo 0 4.1% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 9.7% 8.1% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
2 11.4% 9.5% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
3 9.0% 7.5% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 5.3% 4.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 2.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

Sao Paulo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 72 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sao Paulo -10.2, Mirassol -13.6.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Sao Paulo Elo 1589.1 · -10.2
vs
Mirassol Elo 1552 · -13.6
Elo gapSao Paulo +72
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo3141.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3141.1
Elo home share 60%
Match tone Good Watch
Metric Sao Paulo Mirassol
Overall Elo1589.11552
Form Elo1583.41545.9
Home / Away Elo1551.21486.4
Attack Elo1521.71571.2
Defense Elo1614.51558.5
Last 5 Elo change-10.2-13.6

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Sao Paulo last-5 Elo change: -10.2; Mirassol last-5 Elo change: -13.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSao PauloMirassol
Played55
Form27%20%
Attack38%31%
Defense56%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.48 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sao Paulo Mirassol
HATHAT
Played57126511
Wins80%29%50%17%20%18%
Draws0%29%17%33%20%27%
Loses20%43%33%50%60%55%
Sao PauloWDWWWWLLDWLL
MirassolWDDDLLLLLLW

League goals

Metric Sao Paulo Mirassol
HATHAT
GF total106167613
GF avg2.00.91.31.21.21.2
GA total38119817
GA avg0.61.10.91.51.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSao PauloMirassol
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%75%64%100%
1.542%17%55%45%
2.58%0%0%9%
3.58%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSao PauloMirassol
HATHAT
Clean sheets213000
Failed to score123224

Penalties

MetricSao PauloMirassol
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricSao PauloMirassol
Wins41
Draws13
Losses26

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-22-11-2
Biggest losses0-12-01-23-2
Goals For4222
Goals Against1223

Model comparison

MetricSao PauloMirassol
Form57%43%
Att55%45%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution75%25%
H2h29%71%
Goals33%67%
Total50.3%49.7%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.99 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.75 @ Betano
Away4.20 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.16 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.82 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.92 @ Unibet
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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Sao Paulo vs Mirassol