Liga MX — Mexico
Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 03:05 • Estadio Nemesio Diez
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.86 (league 1.55) 1.35 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
62.2% 10.1% 8.2%
best score tips
3 - 1
7.1%
4 - 1
6.8%
2 - 1
5.5%
Score & goals probability table
Club Tijuana
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.1% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
2 4.1% 5.5% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
3 5.2% 7.1% 4.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 5.1% 6.8% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
5 3.9% 5.3% 3.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTolucaClub Tijuana
Played55
Form60%47%
Attack36%36%
Defense86%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

94%
FT probability

2.5+

66%
FT probability

3.5+

47%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toluca Club Tijuana
HATHAT
Played141428141125
Wins64%50%57%50%18%36%
Draws29%29%29%50%27%40%
Loses7%21%14%0%55%24%

Form: Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDLWLWWWDDD • Club Tijuana: WLDDWDWDWLWDLDLLWWWLDWDDD

League goals

Metric Toluca Club Tijuana
HATHAT
GF total371956261440
GF avg2.61.42.01.91.31.6
GA total1792682533
GA avg1.20.60.90.62.31.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTolucaClub Tijuana
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%64%76%60%
1.561%21%52%36%
2.546%4%24%20%
3.514%4%4%12%
4.54%0%4%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTolucaClub Tijuana
HATHAT
Clean sheets37109110
Failed to score178336

Penalties

MetricTolucaClub Tijuana
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total56

Streaks

MetricTolucaClub Tijuana
Wins73
Draws32
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-35-00-2
Biggest losses3-41-0—5-0
Goals For6453
Goals Against4235

Model comparison

MetricTolucaClub Tijuana
Form56%44%
Att50%50%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution74%26%
H2h71%29%
Goals73%27%
Total65.2%34.8%

Advice: Double chance : Toluca or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.34 @ 188Bet
Draw7.11 @ Pinnacle
Away13.50 @ Marathonbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.87 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.04 @ Pinnacle
No1.96 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Toluca = 3.86 (league 1.55), Club Tijuana = 1.35 (league 1.16)

Club Tijuana
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.1% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
2 4.1% 5.5% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
3 5.2% 7.1% 4.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 5.1% 6.8% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
5 3.9% 5.3% 3.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 62.2% · Draw 10.1% · Away win 8.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1