Liga MX — Mexico
Sun, Mar 15 2026 • 01:00 • Estadio Nemesio Diez
Match Finished
1 - 1
Expected Goals
3.60 (league 1.53) 0.88 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
70.5% 8.8% 5.1%
best score tips
3 - 0
8.8%
4 - 0
7.9%
3 - 1
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
Atlas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 4.1% 3.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 7.4% 6.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 8.8% 7.8% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
4 7.9% 7.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
5 5.7% 5.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTolucaAtlas
Played55
Form100%40%
Attack100%67%
Defense75%8%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.48 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.611 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toluca Atlas
HATHAT
Played171633141327
Wins71%56%64%50%15%33%
Draws24%25%24%29%15%22%
Loses6%19%12%21%69%44%

Form: Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDLWLWWWDDDWWWWW • Atlas: WDLLDLLDDLWWLWLDLWLWWDLWLWL

League goals

Metric Toluca Atlas
HATHAT
GF total432568251237
GF avg2.51.62.11.80.91.4
GA total181129222850
GA avg1.10.70.91.62.21.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTolucaAtlas
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.576%61%74%81%
1.564%21%41%67%
2.548%3%22%30%
3.512%3%0%7%
4.53%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTolucaAtlas
HATHAT
Clean sheets5813415
Failed to score178257

Penalties

MetricTolucaAtlas
Scored (total | %)7 | 100.00%10 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total710

Streaks

MetricTolucaAtlas
Wins72
Draws32
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-33-12-3
Biggest losses3-41-00-34-1
Goals For6433
Goals Against4244

Model comparison

MetricTolucaAtlas
Form71%29%
Att60%40%
Def79%21%
Poisson Distribution80%20%
H2h85%15%
Goals73%27%
Total74.7%25.3%

Advice: Double chance : Toluca or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.38 @ Bet365
Draw5.36 @ Pinnacle
Away8.00 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.07 @ Pinnacle
No1.89 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.76 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.14 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Toluca = 3.60 (league 1.53), Atlas = 0.88 (league 1.13)

Atlas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 4.1% 3.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 7.4% 6.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 8.8% 7.8% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
4 7.9% 7.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
5 5.7% 5.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 70.5% · Draw 8.8% · Away win 5.1%

vtt 1 , vtd1