Liga MX — Mexico
Sat, Apr 4 2026 • 23:00 • Estadio La Corregidora
Not Started
Expected Goals
0.59 (league 1.54) 1.72 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
12.3% 22.9% 63.9%
best score tips
0 - 1
17.1%
0 - 2
14.6%
1 - 1
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Club Queretaro 0 9.9% 17.1% 14.6% 8.4% 3.6% 1.2%
1 5.9% 10.1% 8.7% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7%
2 1.7% 3.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
3 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricClub QueretaroToluca
Played55
Form20%73%
Attack21%71%
Defense43%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.610 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Club Queretaro Toluca
HATHAT
Played131528181735
Wins38%13%25%67%53%60%
Draws23%27%25%28%29%29%
Loses38%60%50%6%18%11%

Form: Club Queretaro: LLLLDWLLWDLWLWLWWDLLDWLDLLDD • Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDLWLWWWDDDWWWWWDD

League goals

Metric Club Queretaro Toluca
HATHAT
GF total171027442670
GF avg1.30.71.02.41.52.0
GA total172845191231
GA avg1.31.91.61.10.70.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineClub QueretaroToluca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.557%75%77%63%
1.529%54%60%20%
2.511%25%46%3%
3.50%7%11%3%
4.50%0%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricClub QueretaroToluca
HATHAT
Clean sheets4375813
Failed to score4812178

Penalties

MetricClub QueretaroToluca
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total57

Streaks

MetricClub QueretaroToluca
Wins27
Draws13
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-26-20-3
Biggest losses0-24-03-41-0
Goals For3264
Goals Against3442

Model comparison

MetricClub QueretaroToluca
Form21%79%
Att23%77%
Def38%62%
Poisson Distribution25%75%
H2h7%93%
Goals17%83%
Total21.8%78.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Toluca

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home6.00 @ Bet365
Draw4.30 @ Betano
Away1.60 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.78 @ SBO
Under 2.52.23 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.82 @ 188Bet
No2.02 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Club Queretaro = 0.59 (league 1.54), Toluca = 1.72 (league 1.14)

Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Club Queretaro 0 9.9% 17.1% 14.6% 8.4% 3.6% 1.2%
1 5.9% 10.1% 8.7% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7%
2 1.7% 3.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
3 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.3% · Draw 22.9% · Away win 63.9%

vtt 1 , vtd1