Mon, Apr 13 2026 • 01:00 •
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Expected Goals
2.82 (league 1.53)
1.56 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 57.2% | 16.7% | 18.9% |
best score tips
2 - 1
7.8%
3 - 1
7.3%
2 - 2
6.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Atletico San Luis | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Toluca | 0 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Toluca | Atletico San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Attack | 47% | 47% |
| Defense | 65% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
92%
FT probability
2.5+
65%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Toluca | Atletico San Luis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 18 | 36 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 67% | 50% | 58% | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Draws | 28% | 28% | 28% | 13% | 7% | 10% |
| Loses | 6% | 22% | 14% | 67% | 53% | 60% |
Form: Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDLWLWWWDDDWWWWWDDL • Atletico San Luis: WLLLWLLDWLLLWWLLLLWDLLWLLWLDLW
League goals
| Metric | Toluca | Atletico San Luis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 44 | 26 | 70 | 21 | 24 | 45 |
| GF avg | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 19 | 13 | 32 | 24 | 27 | 51 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Toluca | Atletico San Luis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 64% | 87% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 58% | 19% | 40% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 3% | 17% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 3% | 7% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Toluca | Atletico San Luis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Toluca | Atletico San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Toluca | Atletico San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 3-4 | 1-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Toluca | Atletico San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 78% | 22% |
| Total | 60.6% | 39.4% |
Advice: Double chance : Toluca or draw
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.44 @ Betano
Draw5.35 @ Pinnacle
Away8.00 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.53 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.63 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.72 @ 188Bet
No2.10 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Toluca
vs
Atletico San Luis
Expected goals
2.82
Toluca xG
League Avg: 1.53
Total
4.39
1.56
Atletico San Luis xG
League Avg: 1.13
1x2 probabilities
Home
57.2%
Draw
16.7%
Away
18.9%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
7.8%
Tip
3 - 1
7.3%
Tip
2 - 2
6.1%
More chances
1.5+
92%
Chance
2.5+
65%
Chance
3.5+
46%
Chance
BTTS
77%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Toluca = 2.82 (league 1.53), Atletico San Luis = 1.56 (league 1.13)
| Atletico San Luis | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Toluca | 0 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 57.2% · Draw 16.7% · Away win 18.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1