Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 23:00 •
Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
Expected Goals
1.48 (league 1.52)
1.40 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.9% | 24.9% | 35.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.6%
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 0
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Pachuca | 0 | 5.6% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 6.1% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Pachuca +30.4, U.N.A.M. - Pumas +36.7.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Pachuca
vs
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Elo gapPachuca +13
Home / draw / away37% / 29% / 34%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3138.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3138.3
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Pachuca | U.N.A.M. - Pumas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1558.1 | 1580.2 |
| Form Elo | 1580 | 1606.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1526.8 | 1518 |
| Attack Elo | 1550.3 | 1606.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1529.1 | 1504.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +30.4 | +36.7 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Pachuca last-5 Elo change: +30.4; U.N.A.M. - Pumas last-5 Elo change: +36.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Pachuca | U.N.A.M. - Pumas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 87% |
| Attack | 85% | 92% |
| Defense | 38% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Pachuca | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 18 | 35 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 59% | 33% | 46% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| Draws | 12% | 33% | 23% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Loses | 29% | 33% | 31% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
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U.N.A.M. - PumasLLWDDDWWDLLLDLDWWLDWDWDWWDLWDWDWWW
League goals
| Metric | Pachuca | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 24 | 50 | 30 | 27 | 57 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 17 | 24 | 41 | 19 | 26 | 45 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Pachuca | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 80% | 91% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 49% | 34% | 44% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 3% | 21% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 12% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Pachuca | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Pachuca | U.N.A.M. - Pumas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 11 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 11 |
Streaks
| Metric | Pachuca | U.N.A.M. - Pumas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Pachuca | U.N.A.M. - Pumas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 48% | 52% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 51.3% | 48.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.06 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.75 @ Betfair
Away3.40 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.67 @ Betano
Under 2.52.27 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.57 @ Bet365
No2.35 @ Unibet
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League standings
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