Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 23:00 •
Estadio Universitario (UANL)
Expected Goals
2.49 (league 1.52)
0.49 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 77.0% | 13.4% | 5.4% |
best score tips
2 - 0
15.7%
3 - 0
13.1%
1 - 0
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Mazatlán | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tigres UANL | 0 | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.6% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.7% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.1% | 6.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Tigres UANL carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 170 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tigres UANL -17.0, Mazatlán +6.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Tigres UANL
vs
Mazatlán
Elo gapTigres UANL +170
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo2998.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2998.3
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Tigres UANL | Mazatlán |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1566.7 | 1431.6 |
| Form Elo | 1549.9 | 1439.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1586 | 1444.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1607 | 1462.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1607.8 | 1397.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.0 | +6.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Tigres UANL last-5 Elo change: -17.0; Mazatlán last-5 Elo change: +6.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tigres UANL | Mazatlán |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 33% |
| Attack | 38% | 50% |
| Defense | 69% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tigres UANL | Mazatlán | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 20 | 39 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 58% | 35% | 46% | 29% | 6% | 18% |
| Draws | 26% | 35% | 31% | 47% | 19% | 33% |
| Loses | 16% | 30% | 23% | 24% | 75% | 48% |
Tigres UANLWWWLDWDDDWWDWWWDWLWDDWLWLDWWLLWLWDLLWDD
MazatlánDWLDLDLLDDLWLDDLDLLLLLWDWLWLDLLDW
League goals
| Metric | Tigres UANL | Mazatlán | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 40 | 27 | 67 | 29 | 12 | 41 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 14 | 27 | 41 | 32 | 29 | 61 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tigres UANL | Mazatlán | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 64% | 79% | 94% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 26% | 33% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 15% | 6% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 0% | 6% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tigres UANL | Mazatlán | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tigres UANL | Mazatlán |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tigres UANL | Mazatlán |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-0 | 1-4 | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 1-5 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tigres UANL | Mazatlán |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 83% | 17% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 62.3% | 37.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.21 @ Betano
Draw7.50 @ BetVictor
Away16.50 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.40 @ Bet365
Under 2.53.17 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.87 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…