Expected Goals
3.31 (league 1.52)
0.58 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 76.4% | 8.3% | 3.5% |
best score tips
3 - 0
12.4%
2 - 0
11.2%
4 - 0
10.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Leon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Toluca | 0 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.2% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 10.2% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Toluca carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 241 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Toluca -37.5, Leon +40.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Toluca
vs
Leon
Elo gapToluca +241
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share80%
Combined Elo3112.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3112.3
Elo home share
80%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Toluca | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1659.3 | 1453 |
| Form Elo | 1641.6 | 1465.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1596.8 | 1474.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1744.4 | 1444.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1616.9 | 1401.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -37.5 | +40.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Toluca last-5 Elo change: -37.5; Leon last-5 Elo change: +40.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Toluca | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 80% |
| Attack | 46% | 77% |
| Defense | 31% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Toluca | Leon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 20 | 39 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 63% | 45% | 54% | 41% | 19% | 30% |
| Draws | 32% | 25% | 28% | 18% | 13% | 15% |
| Loses | 5% | 30% | 18% | 41% | 69% | 55% |
TolucaWWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDLWLWWWDDDWWWWWDDLDLL
LeonLWLLWDWDLDLLLLDLLWLDLLLWWLLLWWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Toluca | Leon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 45 | 30 | 75 | 26 | 9 | 35 |
| GF avg | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 20 | 19 | 39 | 26 | 33 | 59 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Toluca | Leon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 67% | 67% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 23% | 33% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 5% | 6% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 5% | 0% | 15% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Toluca | Leon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Toluca | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Toluca | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 3-4 | 4-3 | 0-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Toluca | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 14% | 86% |
| Att | 38% | 63% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 86% | 14% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 59% | 41% |
| Total | 49.2% | 51.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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