Expected Goals
2.87 (league 1.52)
1.25 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 63.7% | 15.3% | 13.7% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.4%
3 - 1
8.0%
2 - 0
6.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Necaxa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cruz Azul | 0 | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Cruz Azul carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 176 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cruz Azul -32.1, Necaxa +25.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Cruz Azul
vs
Necaxa
Elo gapCruz Azul +176
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo3106.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3106.9
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Cruz Azul | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1624.1 | 1482.8 |
| Form Elo | 1616.5 | 1484.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1582.9 | 1491 |
| Attack Elo | 1653.1 | 1519.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1580.3 | 1462.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -32.1 | +25.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Cruz Azul last-5 Elo change: -32.1; Necaxa last-5 Elo change: +25.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cruz Azul | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 38% | 54% |
| Defense | 54% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
88%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cruz Azul | Necaxa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 67% | 37% | 51% | 35% | 19% | 27% |
| Draws | 22% | 53% | 38% | 29% | 19% | 24% |
| Loses | 11% | 11% | 11% | 35% | 63% | 48% |
Cruz AzulDDWWWWWWWDLDWDWWLDWDDLWWWDWWWWWDDLDDD
NecaxaLWDDLLLDWLLLLDWWDWLLLWWLLLLDWWLDD
League goals
| Metric | Cruz Azul | Necaxa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 29 | 64 | 21 | 21 | 42 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 19 | 22 | 41 | 17 | 36 | 53 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cruz Azul | Necaxa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 92% | 73% | 67% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 54% | 30% | 30% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 8% | 21% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 0% | 9% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cruz Azul | Necaxa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cruz Azul | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cruz Azul | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 2-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cruz Azul | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 69% | 31% |
| Total | 54.8% | 45.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.40 @ Betano
Draw5.20 @ Dafabet
Away8.10 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.57 @ Betano
Under 2.52.55 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ Bet365
No2.05 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
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