Tue, Feb 10 2026 • 02:00 • Cancha El Barrial
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.81 (league 1.66) 1.30 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.3% 23.0% 27.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
2 - 1
9.5%
1 - 0
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
Toluca W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Monterrey W 0 4.5% 5.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
1 8.1% 10.5% 6.8% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2%
2 7.3% 9.5% 6.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
3 4.4% 5.7% 3.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.0% 2.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMonterrey WToluca W
Played55
Form87%80%
Attack100%100%
Defense73%55%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.213 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Monterrey W Toluca W
HATHAT
Played131326141226
Wins69%54%62%71%50%62%
Draws15%15%15%7%42%23%
Loses15%31%23%21%8%15%

Form: Monterrey W: LWWWWLWDDLWLWLWWWDLWWWWDWW • Toluca W: DWWWWWDLWWLDDWDWWDLWWWLWWW

League goals

Metric Monterrey W Toluca W
HATHAT
GF total332659342357
GF avg2.52.02.32.41.92.2
GA total122133151429
GA avg0.91.61.31.11.21.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMonterrey WToluca W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.581%65%88%65%
1.554%27%65%31%
2.542%15%35%12%
3.531%15%19%4%
4.519%4%8%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMonterrey WToluca W
HATHAT
Clean sheets459639
Failed to score145213

Penalties

MetricMonterrey WToluca W
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricMonterrey WToluca W
Wins45
Draws22
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-00-56-01-4
Biggest losses0-25-00-24-3
Goals For5564
Goals Against2534

Model comparison

MetricMonterrey WToluca W
Form52%48%
Att46%54%
Def63%38%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h71%29%
Goals75%25%
Total60.8%39.3%

Advice: Double chance : Monterrey W or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.01 @ 188Bet
Draw3.65 @ Unibet
Away4.00 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.70 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.35 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Bet365
No2.40 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Monterrey W = 1.81 (league 1.66), Toluca W = 1.30 (league 1.32)

Toluca W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Monterrey W 0 4.5% 5.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
1 8.1% 10.5% 6.8% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2%
2 7.3% 9.5% 6.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
3 4.4% 5.7% 3.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.0% 2.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.3% · Draw 23.0% · Away win 27.4%

vtt 1 , vtd1