Tue, Mar 17 2026 • 02:00 • Estadio Azteca
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.38 (league 1.66) 1.30 (league 1.31)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
57.9% 18.9% 19.5%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.3%
1 - 1
7.8%
3 - 1
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
Toluca W
0 1 2 3 4 5
América W 0 2.5% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
1 6.0% 7.8% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
2 7.1% 9.3% 6.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.7% 7.4% 4.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 3.4% 4.4% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
5 1.6% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAmérica WToluca W
Played55
Form53%67%
Attack67%67%
Defense47%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 210 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

73%
FT probability

3.5+

52%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric América W Toluca W
HATHAT
Played171734161430
Wins71%59%65%69%50%60%
Draws18%24%21%13%36%23%
Loses12%18%15%19%14%17%

Form: América W: WWWWWWWWLDLDWWLWWDWWWDLWDWWWWDWDLW • Toluca W: DWWWWWDLWWLDDWDWWDLWWWLWWWLDWW

League goals

Metric América W Toluca W
HATHAT
GF total613798392463
GF avg3.62.22.92.41.72.1
GA total172037181634
GA avg1.01.21.11.11.11.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAmérica WToluca W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.591%62%87%67%
1.579%32%60%33%
2.547%15%33%10%
3.529%0%20%3%
4.518%0%7%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAmérica WToluca W
HATHAT
Clean sheets85136410
Failed to score123224

Penalties

MetricAmérica WToluca W
Scored (total | %)8 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total80

Streaks

MetricAmérica WToluca W
Wins85
Draws12
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins11-01-56-01-4
Biggest losses0-23-20-22-0
Goals For11564
Goals Against3334

Model comparison

MetricAmérica WToluca W
Form44%56%
Att50%50%
Def38%62%
Poisson Distribution66%34%
H2h38%62%
Goals48%52%
Total47.3%52.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Toluca W

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.36 @ Bet365
Draw5.44 @ Pinnacle
Away8.45 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.38 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.53.25 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.71 @ 188Bet
No2.44 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): América W = 2.38 (league 1.66), Toluca W = 1.30 (league 1.31)

Toluca W
0 1 2 3 4 5
América W 0 2.5% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
1 6.0% 7.8% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
2 7.1% 9.3% 6.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.7% 7.4% 4.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 3.4% 4.4% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
5 1.6% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 57.9% · Draw 18.9% · Away win 19.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1