Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 03:10 •
Estadio Colomos
Expected Goals
1.61 (league 1.65)
2.60 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 22.2% | 18.1% | 54.1% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.1%
1 - 3
7.0%
2 - 2
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Juárez W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atlas W | 0 | 1.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.4% | |
| 2 | 1.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Juárez W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 53 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atlas W -9.1, Juárez W +17.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Atlas W
vs
Juárez W
Elo gapJuárez W +53
Home / draw / away32% / 24% / 44%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo2970.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2970.4
Elo home share
42%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Atlas W | Juárez W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1441.1 | 1529.3 |
| Form Elo | 1427.7 | 1542.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1485.4 | 1478.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1518 | 1453.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1366.2 | 1538.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.1 | +17.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Atlas W last-5 Elo change: -9.1; Juárez W last-5 Elo change: +17.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atlas W | Juárez W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 22% | 61% |
| Defense | 33% | 78% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atlas W | Juárez W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
| Wins | 31% | 24% | 27% | 44% | 35% | 40% |
| Draws | 19% | 24% | 21% | 44% | 24% | 34% |
| Loses | 50% | 53% | 52% | 11% | 41% | 26% |
Atlas WDLWDLDLLWWWWDLWLLLLLDLDWLLLWLLWLD
Juárez WDWLWWLDWDLWDLDWDWLDLWWWDLDWDLWWLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Atlas W | Juárez W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 18 | 49 | 24 | 25 | 49 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 37 | 34 | 71 | 12 | 23 | 35 |
| GA avg | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atlas W | Juárez W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 88% | 77% | 57% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 70% | 46% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 36% | 6% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 15% | 6% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atlas W | Juárez W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atlas W | Juárez W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atlas W | Juárez W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 3-4 | 4-0 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 2-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atlas W | Juárez W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 27% | 73% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 39% | 61% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 62% | 38% |
| Total | 42.8% | 57.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home7.00 @ 10Bet
Draw5.05 @ Pinnacle
Away1.53 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.68 @ BetVictor
Under 2.52.23 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ Marathonbet
No2.15 @ Unibet
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League standings
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