USL Championship
— USA
Sat, May 2 2026 • 22:00 •
Keyworth Stadium
Expected Goals
1.88 (league 1.18)
1.52 (league 0.92)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | 22.3% | 31.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.5%
2 - 1
9.0%
1 - 2
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Louisville City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Detroit City | 0 | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.9% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Louisville City carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 50 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Detroit City +24.6, Louisville City +16.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Detroit City
vs
Louisville City
Elo gapLouisville City +50
Home / draw / away33% / 24% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo3122.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3122.2
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Detroit City | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1518.4 | 1603.8 |
| Form Elo | 1534.5 | 1613.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1527 | 1520.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1455.2 | 1632.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1540.4 | 1570.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +24.6 | +16.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Detroit City last-5 Elo change: +24.6; Louisville City last-5 Elo change: +16.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Detroit City | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 67% |
| Attack | 25% | 56% |
| Defense | 75% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Detroit City | Louisville City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 50% | 75% | 67% | 71% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 17% | 0% | 33% | 14% |
| Loses | 0% | 67% | 33% | 25% | 0% | 14% |
Detroit CityWLWDWL
Louisville CityWWWWLDW
League goals
| Metric | Detroit City | Louisville City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Detroit City | Louisville City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 33% | 86% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 33% | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 0% | 43% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 29% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Detroit City | Louisville City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Detroit City | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Detroit City | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | — | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 0-2 | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Detroit City | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 41% | 59% |
| Att | 31% | 69% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 31% | 69% |
| Total | 41.4% | 58.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.07 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.21 @ Pinnacle
Away2.33 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.85 @ 1xBet
No1.91 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.70 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
Loading standings…