USL League One — USA
Sun, May 3 2026 • 01:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Boise

—

Chattanooga Red Wolves

Expected Goals
3.20 (league 1.17) 1.19 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
66.0% 12.9% 10.4%
best score tips
3 - 1
8.1%
2 - 1
7.6%
3 - 0
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
Chattanooga Red Wolves
0 1 2 3 4 5
Boise 0 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 4.0% 4.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
2 6.3% 7.6% 4.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 6.8% 8.1% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
4 5.4% 6.4% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
5 3.5% 4.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

Boise carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 54 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Boise +12.7, Chattanooga Red Wolves +0.7.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Boise Elo 1511.7 · +12.7
vs
Chattanooga Red Wolves Elo 1492.8 · +0.7
Elo gapBoise +54
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3004.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3004.5
Elo home share 58%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Boise Chattanooga Red Wolves
Overall Elo1511.71492.8
Form Elo15241496
Home / Away Elo1508.11486.1
Attack Elo1527.61509.3
Defense Elo15141476.7
Last 5 Elo change+12.7+0.7

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Boise last-5 Elo change: +12.7; Chattanooga Red Wolves last-5 Elo change: +0.7.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBoiseChattanooga Red Wolves
Played53
Form53%44%
Attack63%25%
Defense63%75%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 24 | 1.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 1.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

80%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-6
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Boise Chattanooga Red Wolves
HATHAT
Played235123
Wins50%33%40%0%50%33%
Draws50%33%40%0%50%33%
Loses0%33%20%100%0%33%
BoiseWLDDW
Chattanooga Red WolvesWDL

League goals

Metric Boise Chattanooga Red Wolves
HATHAT
GF total5510044
GF avg2.51.72.00.02.01.3
GA total156134
GA avg0.51.71.21.01.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBoiseChattanooga Red Wolves
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%60%67%100%
1.560%40%67%33%
2.520%20%0%0%
3.520%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBoiseChattanooga Red Wolves
HATHAT
Clean sheets112000
Failed to score000101

Penalties

MetricBoiseChattanooga Red Wolves
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricBoiseChattanooga Red Wolves
Wins11
Draws21
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-1—1-2
Biggest losses—3-20-1—
Goals For4202
Goals Against1312

Model comparison

MetricBoiseChattanooga Red Wolves
Form67%33%
Att71%29%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution70%30%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total62.0%38.0%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Boise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves